A site with little reported electricity can still become a large electrical load
Market screens for mine energy usually start from what a site consumes today: purchased electricity, or the capacity of the power station on site. A diesel-powered mine records most of its energy as fuel, not electricity. Its haul trucks, dozers, drills and light vehicles appear in the national accounts as mining diesel; they appear in the electricity data hardly at all. A screen based on current electrical load therefore ranks such a site as small, when its future load could be among the largest in the sector.
One screened site shows the effect. The electricity datasets reviewed record neither purchased electricity nor reported generation for one remote gold operation, while the project’s environmental material shows that the site is supplied by diesel plant. Converting its reported fuel use gives an average electrical equivalent of 8.7–10.4 MW. Applying the average-to-installed ratio typical of the off-grid mine stations in Heliovulcan’s screen, roughly three to one, implies approximately 25–35 MW of installed capacity; this is an indicative range, not a verified station specification, and several times the size of the power station at a neighbouring operation in the same group. A layer built on who has a power station today classifies that site as nothing at all.
Most of the diesel is on wheels
National energy statistics report diesel consumption by industry division and generation by fuel from the same statistical spine. Reconciling the two accounts for 2023–24 shows how little mining diesel is burned in power stations.
Source: Australian energy statistics 2023–24 (consumption by industry and fuel; generation by fuel); NGER register of designated generation facilities. Generation from fuel assumes 33 per cent thermal efficiency; the mine-station figure is the electricity-supply line less the registered remote-town fleet, an inference from the accounts. Analysis by Heliovulcan.
| Use | PJ | Share | What the diesel does |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mining | 299.6 | 23.6% | Predominantly haul fleet and other mobile plant; mine power stations are booked elsewhere |
| — Coal mining | 151.4 | — | Qld 95.3 · NSW 53.2 |
| — Metal ore mining and quarrying | 145.4 | — | WA alone 120.3 |
| — Oil and gas extraction | 2.8 | — | LNG plants burn gas, not diesel |
| Electricity supply | 42.1 | 3.3% | The only generation line: remote-town stations ~4.3 PJ; contractor-run mine stations ~37.8 PJ (~390 MW) |
| Other mobile uses | 846.7 | 66.7% | Road transport 679.4 · agriculture, forestry and fishing 88.8 · rail 52.0 · construction 26.5. Vehicles and machines with no interconnection point |
| Other stationary and standby uses | 46.0 | 3.6% | Commercial and services 32.1 · manufacturing 13.9, dispersed small sets |
| All other divisions (residual) | 35.5 | 2.8% | Smaller divisions not itemised |
| Total | 1,269.9 | 100% |
Source: Australian energy statistics, consumption by industry and fuel, 2023–24. Groupings and the mine-station attribution are Heliovulcan’s; the residual is the division total less the itemised lines. Analysis by Heliovulcan.
Of 1,269.9 PJ of national diesel consumption, roughly 50 PJ is burned to generate electricity, a ceiling of about 551 MW of average output that includes mine stations, remote-town stations and factory standby sets. The generation side of the accounts corroborates it: 4,823 GWh of oil-fired generation, or 551 MW. Subtract the 148 registered remote-town power stations (45.4 MW, all state-utility town supply) and roughly 37.8 PJ under electricity supply is unexplained, equivalent to about 390 MW. Approached from the generation side in the three states where off-grid operation is material, the same figure appears: 3,779 GWh, less those states’ town stations, leaves 387 MW.
A consumption-side reconciliation and a generation-side reconciliation therefore produce estimates within approximately one per cent. They use different national totals but share the identified remote-town fleet as a subtraction. The explanation is structural: at most Australian mine sites the power station is owned and operated by an independent power producer under a long-term contract, and its fuel is reported under the operator’s industry classification, electricity supply, not the mine’s. That attribution is an inference drawn from the accounts, not a field in any register. Its corollary is the point that matters here: if most mine power-station diesel is booked elsewhere, then most of mining’s own 299.6 PJ appears to be mobile use, although the national accounts do not split the total by equipment type.
Most remaining diesel use is mobile or dispersed rather than centralised electricity generation: road transport 679 PJ, agriculture 89 PJ, rail 52 PJ, construction 27 PJ; smaller stationary and standby uses are spread across commercial services and manufacturing, whose energy is mainly purchased electricity.
Full conversion of reported mining diesel implies 3.9–4.65 GW of theoretical average load
Converting the 299.6 PJ to an electrical equivalent, with diesel engines at 35–45 per cent end-use efficiency and electric drivetrains at 85–92 per cent, gives a theoretical average electrical load of 3.9–4.65 GW. Australian mining consumed 5,339 MW of electricity in 2023–24, so full conversion would add approximately 70–90 per cent to the sector’s current electricity demand. In Western Australian metal mining, where 120.3 PJ of the diesel is burned, it would multiply off-grid station capacity several times over.
| Segment | Reported diesel, 2023–24 | Theoretical average electrical equivalent | Share of estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Metal ore mining and quarrying | 145.4 PJ | 1.90–2.25 GW | 49% |
| Coal mining | 151.4 PJ | 1.97–2.34 GW | 51% |
| Other mining (oil and gas extraction) | 2.8 PJ | 0.04 GW | 1% |
| Australian mining, total | 299.6 PJ | 3.9–4.65 GW | 100% |
Source: Australian energy statistics, diesel consumption by industry, 2023–24. Electrical equivalents convert annual diesel energy to an average electrical load using diesel end-use efficiency of 35–45 per cent against an electric drivetrain at 85–92 per cent; shares are of the midpoint. Analysis by Heliovulcan.
The table converts the reported fuel to electricity, by segment. The national energy statistics report mining diesel by industry division, not by vehicle type or site, so the figure covers the whole reported quantity rather than haul trucks alone.
Average energy is not charging capacity
The estimate converts annual energy use into an average electrical equivalent. Actual charging capacity could be higher, because vehicles charge during limited operating windows and because the power system must accommodate coincident demand, losses and operational reserve. The figure is therefore neither a generation requirement, nor a connection capacity, nor a battery size.
| Quantity | Meaning | In this study |
|---|---|---|
| Average electrical equivalent | Annual diesel energy converted to an average electrical load | 3.9–4.65 GW |
| Charging windows and fleet concurrency | Vehicles charge during limited operating windows, so demand is concentrated in time | Not modelled |
| Network losses and operational reserve | The power system must carry coincident demand, losses and reserve above the average | Not modelled |
| Required connection or generation capacity | The capacity a site would have to build or contract; higher than the average equivalent | Not calculated |
Note: The average equivalent is neither a generation requirement, nor a connection capacity, nor a battery size.
The addressable market is a subset of the theoretical load
The 3.9–4.65 GW estimate is the first layer of the market calculation. The addressable load is the portion that remains after equipment suitability, fleet replacement, mine life, power-supply capacity and commercial structure are tested; this study quantifies the first layer only.
| Layer | Quantity | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · Reported mining diesel, 2023–24 | 299.6 PJ | Australian energy statistics |
| 2 · Mobile equipment share | Not quantified; the reconciliation indicates it is the majority | The national accounts do not separate haul fleets, other mobile equipment and stationary mine use |
| 3 · Technically electrifiable equipment | Not quantified | Depends on duty, haul profile and available machines |
| 4 · Fleet due for replacement | Not quantified | Fleet age is not public site by site |
| 5 · Mine life supports the investment | Not quantified | Mine life and contract expiry are public and can be screened first |
| 6 · Power supply can be expanded | Not quantified | Grid capacity or onsite generation, site by site |
| 7 · Commercially addressable load | Not quantified | The residual after layers 2 to 6 |
Note: The first layer is quantified; the lower layers are not. They are the next stage of work. This study quantifies the ceiling and shows why current electricity data can miss it.
Fuel tax credits raise the economic threshold for electrification
Off-road mining diesel is eligible for the full fuel tax credit, so the private cost of each litre is lower than its excise-inclusive price, and every litre displaced forgoes the credit. Electrification therefore has to compete against the net-of-credit diesel cost. At the full off-road rate, the reported mining diesel pool is associated with approximately A$3.9 billion a year of fuel tax credits (metal ore and quarrying about A$1.9 billion, coal mining about A$2.0 billion). This is a national-order exposure, not the cost of an achievable electrification programme: only fuel actually displaced would forgo the credit. Any mine energy business case has to be net of it.
Fleet replacement and mine life will help determine which projects can move first
Haul-truck service life and remaining mine life are often of the same order. A mine with insufficient remaining life to recover the fleet and infrastructure investment is unlikely to electrify without a transferable asset, a leasing structure or a residual-value solution. A site is a candidate when it meets all of the following:
- large mobile diesel exposure;
- fleet replacement approaching;
- sufficient remaining mine life to amortise the fleet and the power system;
- grid or onsite generation that can be expanded;
- a charging duty cycle that the operation can accommodate;
- a power contract that can be adjusted before its term;
- owner and operator interests that align on who funds the upgrade.
Fleet age is not publicly available site by site. Mine life and contract expiry are. That asymmetry should decide the order in which a screen asks its questions.
Implications for market screening
- Do not rank mines only by current electricity consumption.
- Estimate mobile diesel exposure separately from stationary generation.
- Treat the theoretical electrical equivalent as a ceiling on energy, not a market.
- Check fleet replacement and mine life before modelling infrastructure.
- Model fuel tax credits and charging capacity explicitly.
- Identify who owns the fleet and who must fund the power-system upgrade.
Current electricity data will miss many future mine-electrification loads. Market estimates should start with diesel use, then screen each site for fleet timing, mine life, power supply and tax treatment. Turning the theoretical electrical equivalent into an addressable market requires facility-level evidence on all of those.
A bottom-up site list, tested against a national account built a different way
Heliovulcan maintains a site-level screen of Australian mine onsite generation — 370 sites, with fuel, scale band and grid position established from regulatory filings rather than assumed from industry codes. That screen shows which sites have onsite generation, but it cannot show whether the list is complete.
The denominator comes from national energy statistics, which publish consumption by industry division and by fuel, and generation by fuel, from the same statistical spine. Building the market from the sites and then testing it against those totals gives two things a site list alone never gives: a ceiling, and a residual that has to be named.
Two figures agree only meaningfully when their inputs do not overlap. A facility’s reported emissions and its regulator-published intensity factor will always agree, because one is calculated from the other. The 390 MW residual is reported because a consumption-side calculation and a generation-side calculation produce closely aligned results. They use different national totals but share the identified remote-town fleet as a subtraction.