Research

Open research on Australian industry, energy and investment

Our research uses original datasets or models, explains the method and gives results that readers can check. Each report identifies its sources, assumptions and limits. Shorter commentary sits under Insights; formal submissions sit under Consultations.

Featured research

Three current findings

Interactive model · Policy analysis

The post-2030 decline rate cannot be set in isolation

3.53 pp/yr

For any fixed 2035 target, slower reductions for one group require faster reductions elsewhere. Production, new projects and closures also change the rate required. The model uses every facility in the FY2024–25 Safeguard register.

September 2026 · Safeguard AtlasQuantitative analysis · Industrial & emissions

The largest future mine-electrification loads may not appear in current electricity data

3.9–4.65 GW

Mining reported 299.6 PJ of diesel, most of it used by mobile equipment that does not appear as electricity demand. Converted to electricity that is a theoretical 3.9–4.65 GW of average load. The addressable market is smaller and depends on fleet timing, mine life, power supply and fuel tax credits.

6 August 2026 · 12-minute readQuantitative analysis · Policy analysis

A lower Safeguard threshold would also tighten baselines for existing facilities

100,000 t

The statutory minimum baseline moves with the coverage threshold, so lowering the threshold also reduces baselines for facilities already inside the scheme.

7 August 2026 · 11-minute read

Research reports and models

Research reports and models

Quantitative policy analysis

Better emissions data would cut the modelled CBAM charge by €3.5 billion, but not for every exporter

Question
If EU importers rely on default emissions values, what does CBAM charge by origin — and where would better data actually reduce that charge?
Finding
€14.5 billion a year at default values. Published country intensities reduce the modelled charge by €3.5 billion across 38.6 Mt of steel, 54% of it in China. For Russia the reduction is €10M; for India the national total hides a rise on flat products.
Data
2025 and 2026 EU trade by origin; IR 2026/1740 country defaults; JRC country intensities; 1,830 located plants, 52 with a regulator-published intensity
October 2026 · 12-minute read Interactive model

The post-2030 decline rate cannot be set in isolation

Question
What post-2030 decline rate would meet the 2035 target? How would that rate change under different assumptions for trade-exposed facilities, production, closures and new projects?
Finding
On the starting assumptions, the 62% target requires a decline rate of 3.53 percentage points a year, compared with the legislated indicative rate of 3.285. Different combinations of the default and trade-exposed rates reach the same target.
Data
FY2024-25 Safeguard register, 208 facilities on 209 rows, 16 financial years; 135 published figures recomputed in the browser
September 2026 · Interactive Quantitative sector analysis

The largest future mine-electrification loads may not appear in current electricity data

Question
How much electrical load could mine-fleet electrification create, and which sites would a screen based on current electricity use miss?
Finding
Mining reported 299.6 PJ of diesel, most of it used by mobile equipment. Converted to electricity that is a theoretical 3.9–4.65 GW of average load. It is an upper bound, not a market forecast.
Data
Australian Energy Statistics 2023-24; NGER and NPI registers; Heliovulcan’s 370-site mine screen
August 2026 · 12-minute read Quantitative policy analysis

A lower Safeguard threshold would also tighten baselines for existing facilities

Question
How would a lower coverage threshold affect facilities already inside the Safeguard Mechanism?
Finding
24 covered facilities sit on the 100,000 t minimum baseline today and 45 are projected to by FY2029-30; a 75,000 t threshold would remove at least 0.92 Mt a year of baseline from facilities already covered, an effect the consultation paper does not quantify.
Data
FY2023-24 and FY2024-25 registers; Safeguard Rule ss 10(1), 11, 56(4) and 58B; consultation paper table 3.3
August 2026 · 11-minute read Project-register analysis

Public funding appears mainly in first-of-a-kind mine-energy projects

Question
Which Australian mine microgrid and battery projects received publicly disclosed funding, and what does that pattern suggest for a funding case?
Finding
We found a public funding record for 3 of the 23 operating projects, each described by its funder as a first application in Australia. We found no public record for the other 20, which does not prove they received no public funding.
Data
Heliovulcan register of 23 operating mine microgrid and hybrid BESS projects; ARENA, CEFC and state program records as at 3 August 2026
August 2026 · 9-minute read

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Shorter commentary

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