The post-2030 decline rate cannot be set in isolation

The question this model answers

The Safeguard Mechanism sets a declining emissions limit, called a baseline, for each large industrial facility. The rate at which those baselines decline after 2030 is being decided in the 2026-27 review. The rate cannot be read off the target on its own, because production, new projects, closures and the treatment of trade-exposed facilities all change how much reduction the remaining facilities have to deliver.

This page rebuilds the calculation facility by facility from the published register, projects it to FY2039-40 and lets you change each assumption. Every figure is recalculated in your browser, and the 135 figures published in Heliovulcan’s 2026 decline-rate submission are recomputed here as a check.

The FY2024-25 starting point

Every figure in the model is rebuilt from the register the Clean Energy Regulator publishes each year, one row per facility. These six figures are taken from it directly.

Official published by the regulator  ·  Modelled derived here from official inputs  ·  Assumption a setting the reader can change

The national pathway under the selected settings

Baselines fall automatically under the rules, while reported emissions do not. Under the starting-point assumptions the gap between the two widens from FY2029-30. Facilities must surrender Safeguard credits or ACCUs for emissions above their baselines.

Modelled net emissions are the smaller of each facility's covered emissions and its baseline, summed across facilities. The chart separates reported covered emissions, aggregate baselines and modelled net emissions. The difference between covered and modelled net emissions is the number of Safeguard credits or ACCUs facilities would need to surrender under the selected settings. The dashed line is current policy on the starting-point assumptions.

How this is calculated

What changes the result

Each row changes one assumption from the starting point and shows the effect on FY2034-35 emissions and on the decline rate needed for a 62% target. A slower rate for one group requires a faster rate for the other.

Results under the selected settings

The decline rate required for 2035 depends on production, closures, new projects and the treatment of the 21 trade-exposed facilities. For a fixed target, if trade-exposed facilities reduce emissions more slowly, the remaining facilities must reduce faster to meet the same target.

Rate combinations that meet the target

Where the difference from current policy comes from

How to read these charts, and how they are calculated

Facility distribution

Each point is one row of the register that has a single identifiable location. Point size shows covered emissions and colour shows the facility's position against its baseline. Select a point for its figures and page.

How to read the map

• Point size shows covered emissions.
• Colour shows the position against baseline, the trade-exposed status or the location grade, depending on the option selected.
• Grade A means two independent references agree on the location. Grade B means one reference, or references a few kilometres apart. Grade C, drawn as an open circle, means the references disagree.
• Rows with no single location are listed rather than mapped.

Location grades and facilities not shown

Facility positions

The table shows the published baseline and covered emissions for every register row. It also models each row's baseline and position in FY2034-35 under the selected assumptions. A positive figure means reported emissions are above the baseline and credits must be surrendered for the difference. Each name opens the facility's own page.

Enter the facility assumptions

Enter a baseline directly, or estimate it from production and an applicable emissions intensity. Nothing entered is stored or transmitted. The result is indicative, not a determination.

Comparing the FY2023-24 and FY2024-25 registers

Two registers have now been published under the reformed rules. For each facility continuing under the same name, we move its FY2023-24 baseline by the change in its emissions reduction contribution and change nothing else. The result comes within 0.32 Mt of the published FY2024-25 total. The remaining difference reflects changes in production and emissions intensity. We will run the same comparison against each register as it is published.

What remains after the ERC change alone

The remaining difference reflects production and emissions intensity, which the rule does not set. It is small in aggregate and uneven across commodities: alumina baselines fell faster than the rule, others rose.

Method, and what will be compared when the next register is published

Data sources

We list every input with its source, and we label any input that is not available from a public source. We correct errors readers identify and publish each correction with its date.

Facility-level calculation

We scale each facility's published baseline by the ratio of emissions reduction contribution values year by year (Rule s 11), hold it at 100,000 t where it would otherwise fall below (s 10(1)), and compare it with covered emissions moved by the commodity production factor. Facilities with a trade-exposed determination follow the ERC path the Regulator has published. Credits are measured against the baseline before the minimum is applied (s 57). The full derivation is under How this is calculated on the Pathway and Policy pages.

Policy scenarios

The 2035 target, the post-2030 decline rate, the treatment of trade-exposed determinations after expiry, the production outlook, closures, new entrants and additional abatement are settings. Current policy on the starting-point assumptions is the reference case; the decomposition on the Policy page attributes any difference to one setting at a time.

Changes in the register between FY2023-24 and FY2024-25

Downloads

Download the inputs behind the Atlas in JSON or CSV format. Both files are published under the site’s terms; the register fields are the Clean Energy Regulator’s and remain subject to its licence.

Data dictionary. erc_fy2024_25 is the emissions reduction contribution applied in the year (0.902 default; slower values for facilities with a trade-exposed determination). baseline_t and covered_emissions_t are the Regulator’s published values in tonnes CO₂-e; a baseline of 100,000 may be the statutory minimum rather than the calculated value. commodity_group is Heliovulcan’s assignment for the production factor. In the JSON, bench holds the published figures the browser recomputes; assumptions lists each setting with its source.

Verification

Limitations