Sector output
Facility-by-facility production summed and compared to published national totals. Aluminium closed to within a fraction of a per cent; alumina to a few per cent, with the residual named.
Coverage
What has actually been analysed
This page is an index of work completed, not a publication of it. It exists so that the scope of the underlying analysis can be checked before anyone relies on a single output. One full worked example is public; the rest are working products held for engagements.
21facility-level profiles
2sectors covered end to end
5commodities screened nationally
601storage projects indexed
Depth
Facility-level profiles
A profile establishes what a single operation consumes, burns, emits, produces and pays — reconciled against national accounts, with every figure carrying an evidence grade and the unobtainable items named rather than estimated.
| Sector | Profiles | Scope |
|---|---|---|
| Aluminium smelting | 4 | Every operating and recently closed primary smelter in Australia |
| Alumina refining | 6 | Every alumina refinery in Australia, including the closed one |
| Gold mining | 11 | Selected operations across WA, NT and the Pilbara — a sample, not the sector |
| Bauxite mining | fleet | Fleet-level analysis with national reconciliation |
What "end to end" means
For aluminium smelting and alumina refining, every facility in the country is profiled. That matters because it is the only condition under which a national reconciliation can be checked: sum the facilities, compare to the published national figure, and the difference is either explained or it is a finding. Gold is explicitly not in that position — 11 profiles out of a much larger sector, and treated as a sample throughout.
Breadth
National screening layers
Screening answers a narrower question across a whole population: which sites have a given exposure, and which do not. It is deliberately shallower than a profile, and it is never a sizing or a connection result.
| Layer | Population | Question answered |
|---|---|---|
| Mine on-site generation | 370 sites | Which mines generate their own power, on what fuel, at what scale band |
| Mine power station ownership | 88 mines | Who owns the station, whether a battery is already installed, when the contract ends |
| Commodity screens | 5 commodities | Coal, nickel, copper, iron ore, zinc-lead — off-grid exposure and its absence |
| Safeguard facility register | 215 facilities | Baselines, decline paths and 2029 compliance exposure, including the statutory floor |
| Storage project index | 601 projects | Announced and committed NEM storage, by owner, duration and stated date |
Verification
Reconciliations closed against official accounts
The point of building bottom-up is to be able to check it against something built a different way. These are the closures that have been run, and what each one settled.
Generation and fuel
National electricity generation reconciled against the register of designated generating facilities, with the residual decomposed by fuel and by state rather than left as a gap.
Carbon and pollutants
Facility carbon accounts cross-checked against independent pollutant inventories — two databases with no shared inputs, which is the only way a check is a check.
Sector-level demand
Bottom-up site analysis reconciled against national energy statistics to establish a ceiling, not just a list. Published example: the diesel replacement market.
A reconciliation that fails is worth more than one that passes. Twice, the failure was in our own numbers.
Limits
What this coverage does not mean
It is not a database you can query
These are analytical products built for specific questions. There is no subscription product, no search interface, and no claim of live currency across the whole set.
Screening is not sizing
A screening layer establishes exposure and rank order. It never establishes a system size, a connection outcome or a price. Those need owner data.
Grades differ within a profile
Inside one profile, some figures are drawn directly from regulatory filings and some are derived. They are labelled differently, and derived values are not used to carry a headline finding on their own.
Some questions are closed as unobtainable
Interval load curves, unit run hours, contract price and volume terms, and standby strategy are not in the public record. Where that is the answer, it is stated as the answer.
See the method in full
One worked example is public
The remote mining asset Pre-DD screen is published end to end, including its evidence register and the owner-data requests it could not close. It is published anonymised: the screen was built from public records without the owner’s involvement, so naming the asset would imply a relationship that does not exist. On the facility side, the diesel market note shows the same reconciliation discipline applied at national scale.